The fate of Ukrainian general Valery Zaluzhny is all but sealed as credible reports have finally confirmed that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will soon be ousted and replaced on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s orders following longstanding tensions between the two men that have evidently boiled over and come to a head.

What happened?

On Jan. 29, the first reports of Gen. Zaluzhny’s removal emerged as multiple former Ukrainian lawmakers claimed on social media that Gen. Zaluzhny had been fired, or on the verge of being fired. Soon after, multiple Ukrainian outlets and prominent Telegram news channels began circulating the claims, and others cited additional internal government sources all providing slightly different versions, although with one overall point; Zaluzhny would not stay. The Ukrainian defense ministry initially implicitly denied the report of Zaluzhny’s firing (it told journalists “No, this is not true!” without specifying what it was referring to) and a presidential official also denied Zaluzhny was being fired. However, eventually it became all but confirmed that Gen. Zaluzhny’s ousting was imminent, with CNN subsequently reporting that a presidential decree dismissing Zelensky would be issued by the end of the week.

How did things get here?

President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny are both popular figures in Ukraine amid the Russian invasion, and Gen. Zaluzhny had been widely praised and credited with the successful initial defense of Ukraine and counterattacks around Kharkiv. However, two primary factors eventually led to tensions between the duo and the eventual downfall of Gen. Zaluzhny.

First of all, the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last year definitely served as a reason. Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses and failed to defeat Russian defenses, and ultimately made no more than miniscule gains. Zelensky singled out Gen. Zaluzhny for blame for the defeat, although whether he is responsible is questionable at best; but as they say, “Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.” Arguments also ensued between the two; Zaluzhny was relatively frank when discussing the counteroffensive, accurately saying it had reached a stalemate, while Zelensky publicly contradicted him, asserting that the counteroffensive was not at a stalemate.

Secondly, Gen. Zaluzhny was significantly more popular with the Ukrainian public than Zelensky was; polls showed that trust in Zelensky had substantially declined to 62% in Dec. 2023 from 84% last year. Meanwhile, Zaluzhny dwarfed him with an impressive 88% of Ukrainians saying they trusted him. This led Zelensky to see him as a potential political threat; although the general himself has never expressed any political ambitions, media outlets and public figures have speculated about them for months. This led Zelensky to see him as a threat that had to be put down, and the failed counteroffensive gave him a useful opportunity to do just that. Many had been speculating for months that Gen. Zaluzhny was operating on borrowed time, and that time has evidently run out.

Who will replace Gen. Zaluzhny?

While many names have been tossed around as potential replacements for commander-in-chief, two names in particular are considered by far the most likely; Ukraine’s spy chief, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, and ground forces commander Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi. However, Gen. Budanov is more likely to be appointed as a replacement, given his closer relationship with President Zelensky. Furthermore, reports have already begun circulating saying that Gen. Syrskyi declined an offer to replace his former boss. Therefore, Gen. Budanov is the clear top choice for commander-in-chief.

What impact will this have?

Undoubtedly, the dismissal of Gen. Zaluzhny will have a negative impact on Ukraine militarily and in other ways as well. Gen. Zaluzhny is widely recognized as a skilled general, and his loss will no doubt be a blow to Ukraine’s war effort. Furthermore, his ouster will undermine public trust in Zelensky and the government and further dampen wartime morale. Infighting also does not look good internationally and will damage Zelensky’s credibility and give ammo to his detractors abroad. Gen. Zaluzhny’s dismissal hurts Ukraine not only militarily, but will also contribute to eroding public trust, diminishing wartime morale, and ironically tarnishing President Zelensky’s domestic popularity and international credibility as well.